Eve of referendum polls of polls

**mudskipper** · 22 June 2016, 21:31

Poll? Ain't she the barmaid down the Nag's 'end?

**GB9** · 22 June 2016, 22:00

So heading for exit until the MP was murdered. Just starting to head back to exit but probably late enough to save the remain campaign.

**vetran** · 22 June 2016, 22:03

Originally posted by mudskipper View Post

Poll? Ain't she the barmaid down the Nag's 'end?

Nope MF will explain it to you he is the expert on pole.

**jamesbrown** · 22 June 2016, 22:42

Originally posted by GB9 View Post

So heading for exit until the MP was murdered. Just starting to head back to exit but probably late enough to save the remain campaign.

Nah, it was happening before that. Statistical modelling by YouGov suggests peak Brexit was around 13 June. Polls were beginning to soften markedly around the date of Gidiot's punishment budget, coincidence or otherwise. No evidence that the tragic murder of Jo Cox had any impact. There is invariably a swing to the perceived status quo in the last few days.

**shaunbhoy** · 23 June 2016, 06:33

Originally posted by jamesbrown View Post

Nah, it was happening before that. Statistical modelling by YouGov suggests peak Brexit was around 13 June. Polls were beginning to soften markedly around the date of Gidiot's punishment budget, coincidence or otherwise. No evidence that the tragic murder of Jo Cox had any impact. There is invariably a swing to the perceived status quo in the last few days.

Yes, I agree. If truth be told, I reckon most voters had made their minds up a long time ago and I doubt very many have subsequently changed their stances. The whole campaign on both sides has revolved around which side can alarm most of the undecideds. I suspect that will leave us a fairly narrow Remain victory.
What it will also leave us with is an electorate that is fairly evenly split down the middle across all sorts of political, social, and economic boundaries. Whether that is a good thing or not remains to be seen, but the entire business is hardly likely to have been good for the reputations of the political classes.
Expect ever lower turnouts at Elections in future with probable rises in the support for fringe parties.

**Old Greg** · 23 June 2016, 06:36

Originally posted by shaunbhoy View Post

Yes, I agree.

Well that's good to know.

**shaunbhoy** · 23 June 2016, 06:43

Originally posted by Old Greg View Post

Well that's good to know.

I knew that would cheer you up. I hope it helps with your acceptance issues

**Old Greg** · 23 June 2016, 06:45

Originally posted by shaunbhoy View Post

I knew that would cheer you up. I hope it helps with your acceptance issues

My issues are way beyond help, but you always cheer me up.

**GB9** · 23 June 2016, 07:06

Originally posted by jamesbrown View Post

Nah, it was happening before that. Statistical modelling by YouGov suggests peak Brexit was around 13 June. Polls were beginning to soften markedly around the date of Gidiot's punishment budget, coincidence or otherwise. No evidence that the tragic murder of Jo Cox had any impact. There is invariably a swing to the perceived status quo in the last few days.

If you look on the link attached to the op and scroll down you can see that the average was moving further towards brexit. Then suddenly green (referring to the colouring on the link). The pollsters even reported that voting intentions changed during the poll when the news was announced.

Looking at the op link, you can see the average moving back to red (exit) but not as much momentum as before.

I have no idea how accurate the info on the link is, but at face value, the poor woman's murder made a dramatic change to voting intentions.

Eve of referendum polls of polls