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darmstadt
28th June 2016, 19:02
Reasonable article: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2016/06/28/no-britain-wont-get-a-better-deal-now-heres-why-brexit-will-be-very-costly-for-both-the-u-k-and-the-e-u/?postshare=4361467110358049&tid=ss_fb-bottom

Highlights are:


If (as is likely) Britain leaves, it will then have to approach the E.U. as a non-member seeking an association agreement to regain access to E.U. markets. It is not going to be in a position to demand a good deal.
First of all, it will face the E.U.’s unanimity requirements. All the E.U. member states will have to agree to any deal before it goes forward. This means that just one member state can block the agreement. Before the referendum, Britain could count on the help of other governments that were sympathetic to it. Now, any deal will effectively be shaped by the single government most unsympathetic to Britain’s case, and most eager to punish it, since all other member states will need that state’s assent. If one or several remaining member states want to make the establishment of an association agreement very costly for Britain, the British will find themselves in a very weak bargaining position.


That bloody veto again.

MarillionFan
28th June 2016, 19:06
Reasonable article: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2016/06/28/no-britain-wont-get-a-better-deal-now-heres-why-brexit-will-be-very-costly-for-both-the-u-k-and-the-e-u/?postshare=4361467110358049&tid=ss_fb-bottom

Highlights are:



That bloody veto again.

Mark my words. We will not invoke Article 50.

I expect chaos for the next year, and then a second referendum. This next year is going to be carnage.

scooterscot
28th June 2016, 19:09
Mark my words. We will not invoke Article 50.

My bet is it'll be interpreted as invoked come one slip of the tongue.

Even though, the public voted to exit the EU. The government has said as much. Are you saying the government now or to come will not carry out the instructions of the people?

meridian
28th June 2016, 19:11
The Polish diplomat on the telly over the weekend made it clear that Poland would protect the interests of it's people in the UK, over any preferential deal for the UK.

Presumably, other nations will also be seeking concessions before agreeing to anything with the U.K.

scooterscot
28th June 2016, 19:23
Article 7 of the Lisbon treaty allows the EU to suspend a member if it deems it to be in breach of basic principles of freedom, democracy, equality and rule of law.

Who knows... if the UK pisses off the EU with inaction they may well just go ahead with the nuclear option. Not activating Article 50 is a clear violation of democracy of the UK people.

CretinWatcher
28th June 2016, 19:52
Mark my words. We will not invoke Article 50.

I expect chaos for the next year, and then a second referendum. This next year is going to be carnage.

In that case UKIP will become a power in the next elections. Making investment in the UK even more problematic for foreign firms.
It's not looking good, I can see the amount of cretins now has reached a critical mass majority.
At this point historically, a country spirals downwards.

vetran
28th June 2016, 20:50
Article 7 of the Lisbon treaty allows the EU to suspend a member if it deems it to be in breach of basic principles of freedom, democracy, equality and rule of law.

Who knows... if the UK pisses off the EU with inaction they may well just go ahead with the nuclear option. Not activating Article 50 is a clear violation of democracy of the UK people.

Is there a time limit for invoking Article 50? Or is that like most of EU law open to interpretation?

original PM
28th June 2016, 20:55
The use of the word punish in the article seems to imply the EU are the masters and we are the servants to be punished for doing something wrong.

And it appears that wrong was to listen to the voice of the people in a democratic vote.

CretinWatcher
28th June 2016, 20:59
The use of the word punish in the article seems to imply the EU are the masters and we are the servants to be punished for doing something wrong.

And it appears that wrong was to listen to the voice of the people in a democratic vote.

We don't need to talk to the EU at all. We could just walk away tomorrow. Shall we do it, do you think?:rolleyes:
I'm beginning to understand something fundamental. You thickos outnumber us immensely.

Old Greg
28th June 2016, 21:05
We don't need to talk to the EU at all. We could just walk away tomorrow. Shall we do it, do you think?:rolleyes:
I'm beginning to understand something fundamental. You thickos outnumber us immensely.

That is correct. Article 50 is an EU mechanism to initiate a 2 year negotiation period. It's not a requirement from a UK perspective.

scooterscot
28th June 2016, 21:12
Is there a time limit for invoking Article 50? Or is that like most of EU law open to interpretation?

Certainly is. The longer the UK keeps the shroud of uncertainty over the remaining 27 EU economies the more pi$$ed off the EU is likely to become. At some point the value of loosing the UK as a member versus the stability of the EU will be tested. When that happens the UK's only ace card will be played for us.

scooterscot
28th June 2016, 21:14
The use of the word punish in the article seems to imply the EU are the masters and we are the servants to be punished for doing something wrong.

And it appears that wrong was to listen to the voice of the people in a democratic vote.

27 against 1. Yes the EU are the masters. We were part of the master once.

They have to come across hard line to protect the EU.

Flashman
28th June 2016, 21:35
Reasonable article: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2016/06/28/no-britain-wont-get-a-better-deal-now-heres-why-brexit-will-be-very-costly-for-both-the-u-k-and-the-e-u/?postshare=4361467110358049&tid=ss_fb-bottom

Highlights are:

That bloody veto again.

I'm sure we'll scrape by somehow.

Anyhow's who is going to pay our contribution to the EU budget now? <everyone looks at Germany >

Oh and don't forget you'll soon have open borders with Albania and Serbia. That'll be fun. :tongue

Ah the EU. Missing it already :laugh

SueEllen
28th June 2016, 23:32
I'm sure we'll scrape by somehow.

Anyhow's who is going to pay our contribution to the EU budget now? <everyone looks at Germany >

Oh and don't forget you'll soon have open borders with Albania and Serbia. That'll be fun. :tongue

Ah the EU. Missing it already :laugh

Lots of Serbians and Albanians here already.

Then again you live in a cultural back water so wouldn't know that.

AtW
29th June 2016, 00:31
Lots of Serbians and Albanians here already.

Then again you live in a cultural back water so wouldn't know that.

Them Serbians are putting honest Brits out of work at Wimbledon :mad

bobspud
29th June 2016, 06:05
We don't need to talk to the EU at all. We could just walk away tomorrow. Shall we do it, do you think?:rolleyes:
I'm beginning to understand something fundamental. You thickos outnumber us immensely.

That's the down side to any pyramid there is always more at the bottom than at the top.

BrilloPad
29th June 2016, 06:29
We don't need to talk to the EU at all. We could just walk away tomorrow. Shall we do it, do you think?:rolleyes:


You have argued before that protectionist policies have served the US well for the last 100 years.

For the past centuries an open door policy has helped the UK. Do you think that should continue?

The EU has alot more to lose than the UK. The UK *could* just become like Japan.....

MarillionFan
29th June 2016, 06:53
The EU has alot more to lose than the UK. The UK *could* just become like Japan.....

Feck that. I didn't vote out so I could eat raw fish!

NotAllThere
29th June 2016, 07:40
Article 7 of the Lisbon treaty allows the EU to suspend a member if it deems it to be in breach of basic principles of freedom, democracy, equality and rule of law.

Who knows... if the UK pisses off the EU with inaction they may well just go ahead with the nuclear option. Not activating Article 50 is a clear violation of democracy of the UK people.The UK is a representative democracy, not a direct democracy. As has been pointed out several times, the government is not legally obliged to act on the will of a small majority of the people, so I don't think Article 7 can be invoked.

Since Farage said that unless there was a substantial majority in favour of remain, he wouldn't be going away, the government should have taken that as agreeing to requiring a 60% majority to change the status quo. Oh well, we are where we are and need to make the best of it.

original PM
29th June 2016, 08:22
We don't need to talk to the EU at all. We could just walk away tomorrow. Shall we do it, do you think?:rolleyes:
I'm beginning to understand something fundamental. You thickos outnumber us immensely.


27 against 1. Yes the EU are the masters. We were part of the master once.

They have to come across hard line to protect the EU.

Which part of 'The EU are planning to punish a country for exercising democracy' are you struggling with?

You dense fookin tw@s

Are you happy to sign all our liberties over to a central European superpower?

Old Greg
29th June 2016, 08:23
Are you happy to sign all our liberties over to a central European superpower?

Strawman of the day - congrats.

CretinWatcher
29th June 2016, 08:27
Which part of 'The EU are planning to punish a country for exercising democracy' are you struggling with?

You dense fookin tw@s

Are you happy to sign all our liberties over to a central European superpower?

Which part of "lets walk away then" are YOU struggling with?
Thick fookwit.

original PM
29th June 2016, 08:27
Strawman of the day - congrats.

Indeed...

you do not seem to be refuting the first point about the EU punishing a country for exercising democracy though...

or is that just an inconvenient truth?

scooterscot
29th June 2016, 08:31
Which part of 'The EU are planning to punish a country for exercising democracy' are you struggling with?

You dense fookin tw@s

Are you happy to sign all our liberties over to a central European superpower?

They're not punishing, they're protecting their interests. The remaining 27 states. Do you honestly expect them to do vice versa?

BlueSharp
29th June 2016, 08:36
Indeed...

you do not seem to be refuting the first point about the EU punishing a country for exercising democracy though...

or is that just an inconvenient truth?

No they are doing what we are doing looking after our own interests'. There is no punishment just thiko's looking to blame others for their own failures.

What part of below is punishing us?

Hey Mr E.U. I want access to the free market but don't won't to contribute financially or allow those funny foreigners in.

Mr E.U. No, you can have the same rules as everyone else.

Old Greg
29th June 2016, 08:37
Indeed...

you do not seem to be refuting the first point about the EU punishing a country for exercising democracy though...

or is that just an inconvenient truth?

The article uses the word punish once.


First of all, it will face the E.U.’s unanimity requirements. All the E.U. member states will have to agree to any deal before it goes forward. This means that just one member state can block the agreement. Before the referendum, Britain could count on the help of other governments that were sympathetic to it. Now, any deal will effectively be shaped by the single government most unsympathetic to Britain’s case, and most eager to punish it, since all other member states will need that state’s assent. If one or several remaining member states want to make the establishment of an association agreement very costly for Britain, the British will find themselves in a very weak bargaining position.

Nowhere does it reference "the EU punishing" (to use your words) the UK, just one country. So the EU may take a variety of positions, but if one country for whatever reason (e.g. Spain looking for joint sovereignty over Gibraltar) takes a view that it (the country, not the EU) wants to punish the UK, then the assent of that country to any favourable deal is a barrier.

It's like an easy 'O' Level English comprehension, isn't it?

Old Greg
29th June 2016, 08:38
No they are doing what we are doing looking after our own interests'. There is no punishment just thiko's looking to blame others for their own failures.

What part of below is punishing us?

Hey Mr E.U. I want access to the free market but don't won't to contribute financially or allow those funny foreigners in.

Mr E.U. No, you can have the same rules as everyone else.

But that's not fair, we're being punished! :tantrum: