Is the recession only in the US?

[Pondlife]

The media and doomsters keep telling me that WE are in a recession and that it's time to build that bunker and stock up on beans but is it true? Where's the evidence?

I work on the mainland in one of the busiest ports in Europe. I can see that the huge container ships are not at full capacity but all the maintenance docks are full so their business is booming.

I can rarely pick and chose with hotels each week as there's always some trade fair going on that consumes them all.

When I walk around the plant it's clear that volumes are down (all the major car plants in DE are on stop until xmas) but the client is spending huge amounts on infrastructure projects based on predicted growth in the next 2 - 10 years.

I don't work in finance or 'the city' which the media is constantly telling me is flipped but the one person I do know in this arena has been offered a new position with a guaranteed £xM bonus.

As I still think in pounds when window shopping, everything seems expensive due to the pound dropping so much since I've been coming over here but since being paid in EUR the net effect is zero.

So do we have a temporary dip because everyone is unnecessarily worried or are we as flipped as the media tells us we are? I can't see it myself.

Discuss.

Please provide real world evidence of why we are (not) in a recession.

[Francko]

Discuss.

Please provide real world evidence of why we are (not) in a recession.

- pound has dropped in value by a large percentage
- house prices fallen already by 20% and more expected
- several companies firing thousands of employees
- credit almost impossible to get

...not sure what else you need. Sure the malls on saturday will still be full as people need something to do on the weekend but it just means nothing.

[BrilloPad]

The media and doomsters keep telling me that WE are in a recession and that it's time to build that bunker and stock up on beans but is it true? Where's the evidence?

I work on the mainland in one of the busiest ports in Europe. I can see that the huge container ships are not at full capacity but all the maintenance docks are full so their business is booming.

I can rarely pick and chose with hotels each week as there's always some trade fair going on that consumes them all.

When I walk around the plant it's clear that volumes are down (all the major car plants in DE are on stop until xmas) but the client is spending huge amounts on infrastructure projects based on predicted growth in the next 2 - 10 years.

I don't work in finance or 'the city' which the media is constantly telling me is flipped but the one person I do know in this arena has been offered a new position with a guaranteed £xM bonus.

As I still think in pounds when window shopping, everything seems expensive due to the pound dropping so much since I've been coming over here but since being paid in EUR the net effect is zero.

So do we have a temporary dip because everyone is unnecessarily worried or are we as flipped as the media tells us we are? I can't see it myself.

Discuss.

Please provide real world evidence of why we are (not) in a recession.

Companies are now starting to lay people off. And people are going to find personal credit lines being reduced.

What worked for you on the way up works against you on the way down.

[expat]

- pound has dropped in value by a large percentage
- house prices fallen already by 20% and more expected
- several companies firing thousands of employees
- credit almost impossible to get

Is that a recession, or a return to sanity?

[Pondlife]

- pound has dropped in value by a large percentage
- house prices fallen already by 20% and more expected
- several companies firing thousands of employees
- credit almost impossible to get

...not sure what else you need. Sure the malls on saturday will still be full as people need something to do on the weekend but it just means nothing.

- pound has dropped in value by a large percentage
So what. How does this affect the daily life of Joe public who lives and works in the UK.

- house prices fallen already by 20% and more expected
This affects the people who are currently selling but they seem in short supply anyway. Oh, and the people who have to remortgage (see 4)

- several companies firing thousands of employees
Has ever been so. Other companies are making huge investments but that isn't news.

- credit almost impossible to get
Have you tried and been turned down? Again, this is what the daily mail tells us but I don't know anyone actually affected by this.

[Francko]

Is that a recession, or a return to sanity?

- pound now is largely undervalued. Everything is so cheap in the UK. A pity that most online shop do not deliver outside the UK and import taxes make it very expensive to buy.

- house prices in UK are now cheap compared to the rest of Europe. A flat in London now costs less than a flat in Milan or Amsterdam.

- what's so sane about this?

- abuse of credit. Yes, that's probably the only thing that needs to be corrected as it was really getting out of the way. It used to be banks suggesting to take a loan for 10k even if you didn't need.

[NotAllThere]

The pound losing value means that imports are more expensive, and therefore less affordable. Coupled with a difficulty in getting credit, expect many firms to fold.

But in mainland Europe, there's little effect so far.

I bought quite a few christmas pressies from amazon.co.uk. Even with the shipping charges, it's worth it.

[Francko]

- pound has dropped in value by a large percentage
So what. How does this affect the daily life of Joe public who lives and works in the UK.
-- again the island mentality. Unfortunately, you don't live in an island economy, you need to import goods. Goods that will make your life much more expensive and reduce your income.


- house prices fallen already by 20% and more expected
This affects the people who are currently selling but they seem in short supply anyway. Oh, and the people who have to remortgage (see 4)
-- This affects the majority of people who bought the house at an overpriced value and they have to keep paying it for the next 25 years. You might think it's fair that the business-unwise should punished but I don't agree.


- several companies firing thousands of employees
Has ever been so. Other companies are making huge investments but that isn't news.
-- I haven't seen any company investing at the moment. No company is hiring thousands of employees to balance the lay offs. The fact that a small bunch of people got their contract renewed for 6 months here is really statistically insignificant.


- credit almost impossible to get
Have you tried and been turned down? Again, this is what the daily mail tells us but I don't know anyone actually affected by this
-- ok go and try..., good luck

[Sockpuppet]

I'm with pondlife.

The work I do is not based on the "now" but is based on the future. No-one builds a warehouse without thinking x years ahead. In 2006 I was building stuff based on predicted 2010 demand.

I think in the UK the banking sector is screwed - which is a lot of people but for those of us with "real" skills who are willing to travel the work is not that reduced.

Seen more jobs for interims in my area this week that I did a month half way through last year.

[rootsnall]

Try looking for UK work in the toot toot gravy train world of .Net and you'll find all the doors are shut and nobody is getting aboard.