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One million immigrants to leave Britain because of economy
Almost one million immigrants will leave Britain because of its slowing economy, a study has predicted.
By James Kirkup, Political Correspondent
Published: 7:00AM BST 06 Aug 2009
At least 200,000 foreign nationals will leave Britain every year as job opportunities become more scarce, the research suggests.
While the number of foreigners quitting Britain will still be smaller than the number of new arrivals, the rise in "remigration" could slow the growth in the British population.
The Institute for Public Policy Research said that the growing mobility of migrants means that the Government should consider offering tax breaks to some of the most highly-skilled workers to persuade them to stay in Britain.
According to Government calculations, foreign migrants were leaving Britain at a rate of around 125,000 a year in the first half of the decade.
But as travel becomes easier and the UK economy slows, the IPPR calculates that the annual exodus will grow.
The IPPR researchers estimate that departures will run at least 200,000 a year for the three years from 2008. After that, they are forecast to be 150,000 a year for at least five years.
That would mean that between 2008 and 2013, around 950,000 immigrants will leave Britain.
However, the overall population is still set to grow. The Office for National Statistics current population projections suggest that the population will pass 65 million by 2016 and 70 million by 2028.
Net migration rose by a quarter to 237,000 in 2007, according to the Office for National Statistics.
The IPPR suggested that net immigration will remain relatively high but will fall from that "peak" because of rising levels of departures.
Tim Finch, head of migration, said many more immigrants were coming here for short periods of time before leaving.
He said: "More and more immigrants are spending only short periods in the UK.
"Our research shows that many groups of migrants are now increasingly mobile.
"They are coming to the UK to study and work for short periods and then they are moving on.
"As global competition for highly skilled migrants increases in future years, schemes to retain migrants may become as important as attracting them in the first place."
Poles and other eastern European workers are among the most mobile immigrants. Many who come to Britain are young and childless and seek to work for a short period of time before returning home.
As job opportunities have dried up, may eastern workers have left Britain. The recent decline in the value of the pound against the Polish zloty and other eastern currencies, has also persuaded them to leave. It has effectively devalued wages earned in Britain and then sent to family in their home country.
The IPPR study estimates that at least 1.1 eastern Europeans have come to Britain to work since the European Union expanded in 2004.
But as the UK economy slows, the tide is starting to turn and the IPPR calculates that at least 550,000 have already left again.
Phil Woolas, the immigration minister, said: "This report further demonstrates that migrants come to the UK for a short period of time, work, contribute to the economy and then return home."
Sir Andrew Green, chairman of campaign group Migrationwatch UK said: "Re-migration is the least of our problems. The real problem is the absence of any effective limits on immigration, often from countries where wages are a fraction of those in the UK and to which people are unlikely to return."
Almost one million immigrants will leave Britain because of its slowing economy, a study has predicted.
By James Kirkup, Political Correspondent
Published: 7:00AM BST 06 Aug 2009
At least 200,000 foreign nationals will leave Britain every year as job opportunities become more scarce, the research suggests.
While the number of foreigners quitting Britain will still be smaller than the number of new arrivals, the rise in "remigration" could slow the growth in the British population.
The Institute for Public Policy Research said that the growing mobility of migrants means that the Government should consider offering tax breaks to some of the most highly-skilled workers to persuade them to stay in Britain.
According to Government calculations, foreign migrants were leaving Britain at a rate of around 125,000 a year in the first half of the decade.
But as travel becomes easier and the UK economy slows, the IPPR calculates that the annual exodus will grow.
The IPPR researchers estimate that departures will run at least 200,000 a year for the three years from 2008. After that, they are forecast to be 150,000 a year for at least five years.
That would mean that between 2008 and 2013, around 950,000 immigrants will leave Britain.
However, the overall population is still set to grow. The Office for National Statistics current population projections suggest that the population will pass 65 million by 2016 and 70 million by 2028.
Net migration rose by a quarter to 237,000 in 2007, according to the Office for National Statistics.
The IPPR suggested that net immigration will remain relatively high but will fall from that "peak" because of rising levels of departures.
Tim Finch, head of migration, said many more immigrants were coming here for short periods of time before leaving.
He said: "More and more immigrants are spending only short periods in the UK.
"Our research shows that many groups of migrants are now increasingly mobile.
"They are coming to the UK to study and work for short periods and then they are moving on.
"As global competition for highly skilled migrants increases in future years, schemes to retain migrants may become as important as attracting them in the first place."
Poles and other eastern European workers are among the most mobile immigrants. Many who come to Britain are young and childless and seek to work for a short period of time before returning home.
As job opportunities have dried up, may eastern workers have left Britain. The recent decline in the value of the pound against the Polish zloty and other eastern currencies, has also persuaded them to leave. It has effectively devalued wages earned in Britain and then sent to family in their home country.
The IPPR study estimates that at least 1.1 eastern Europeans have come to Britain to work since the European Union expanded in 2004.
But as the UK economy slows, the tide is starting to turn and the IPPR calculates that at least 550,000 have already left again.
Phil Woolas, the immigration minister, said: "This report further demonstrates that migrants come to the UK for a short period of time, work, contribute to the economy and then return home."
Sir Andrew Green, chairman of campaign group Migrationwatch UK said: "Re-migration is the least of our problems. The real problem is the absence of any effective limits on immigration, often from countries where wages are a fraction of those in the UK and to which people are unlikely to return."
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