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Brexit rebellion building in Parliament
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Originally posted by jamesbrown View Post
Are you still at Stage 2?Comment
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Originally posted by GB9 View PostI think some are still at Stage 1. Fortunately a lot seem to have moved on.
But, it's worth taking a step back and thinking about how this is going to work at the most elementary level. There will be a new Tory PM. They will invoke Article 50. There is no parliamentary approval of that process, it is for the Gov't to invoke in a speech or letter. Once invoked, the two-year process begins. Any agreement with the EU will need to be approved by parliament, but the Gov't is the executive and decides what to propose, not parliament. If a proposal is not approved within two years, we've left, regardless. So, barring a massive climbdown from the EU in which they offer something like EEA without freedom of movement (not going to happen), there is no scenario in which Article 50 is not invoked and, once invoked, no scenario in which we will remain. After we've left, try arguing for renewed membership on the basis of the Euro and Schengen Area Pretty soon, this is all going to sink in. The next ~2 years is about deciding the nature of our relationship outside the EU, not whether we're going. Let's be honest, they don't really want us at this point, anyway. We've fecked them around for far too long (seriously, I'd be peed off with us too).Comment
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Originally posted by BlasterBates View PostComment
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Originally posted by jamesbrown View PostIt's hard to lose.
But, it's worth taking a step back and thinking about how this is going to work at the most elementary level. There will be a new Tory PM. They will invoke Article 50. There is no parliamentary approval of that process, it is for the Gov't to invoke in a speech or letter. Once invoked, the two-year process begins. Any agreement with the EU will need to be approved by parliament, but the Gov't is the executive and decides what to propose, not parliament. If a proposal is not approved within two years, we've left, regardless. So, barring a massive climbdown from the EU in which they offer something like EEA without freedom of movement (not going to happen), there is no scenario in which Article 50 is not invoked and, once invoked, no scenario in which we will remain. After we've left, try arguing for renewed membership on the basis of the Euro and Schengen Area Pretty soon, this is all going to sink in. The next ~2 years is about deciding the nature of our relationship outside the EU, not whether we're going. Let's be honest, they don't really want us at this point, anyway. We've fecked them around for far too long (seriously, I'd be peed off with us too).
Us leaving makes sense all round. They want more of a socialist superstate. We (England and Wales) don't. Scotland does. So if we left the EU and Scotland left us and joined the EU then we would all be happy.
The trouble is there are so many egos and architects of the 'project' who are seeing their empire crumble in front of them.Comment
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Originally posted by jamesbrown View PostIt's hard to lose.
But, it's worth taking a step back and thinking about how this is going to work at the most elementary level. There will be a new Tory PM. They will invoke Article 50. There is no parliamentary approval of that process, it is for the Gov't to invoke in a speech or letter. Once invoked, the two-year process begins. Any agreement with the EU will need to be approved by parliament, but the Gov't is the executive and decides what to propose, not parliament. If a proposal is not approved within two years, we've left, regardless. So, barring a massive climbdown from the EU in which they offer something like EEA without freedom of movement (not going to happen), there is no scenario in which Article 50 is not invoked and, once invoked, no scenario in which we will remain. After we've left, try arguing for renewed membership on the basis of the Euro and Schengen Area Pretty soon, this is all going to sink in. The next ~2 years is about deciding the nature of our relationship outside the EU, not whether we're going. Let's be honest, they don't really want us at this point, anyway. We've fecked them around for far too long (seriously, I'd be peed off with us too).Comment
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Originally posted by jamesbrown View PostIt's hard to lose.
But, it's worth taking a step back and thinking about how this is going to work at the most elementary level. There will be a new Tory PM. They will invoke Article 50. There is no parliamentary approval of that process, it is for the Gov't to invoke in a speech or letter. Once invoked, the two-year process begins. Any agreement with the EU will need to be approved by parliament, but the Gov't is the executive and decides what to propose, not parliament. If a proposal is not approved within two years, we've left, regardless. So, barring a massive climbdown from the EU in which they offer something like EEA without freedom of movement (not going to happen), there is no scenario in which Article 50 is not invoked and, once invoked, no scenario in which we will remain. After we've left, try arguing for renewed membership on the basis of the Euro and Schengen Area Pretty soon, this is all going to sink in. The next ~2 years is about deciding the nature of our relationship outside the EU, not whether we're going. Let's be honest, they don't really want us at this point, anyway. We've fecked them around for far too long (seriously, I'd be peed off with us too).
But it is all rather silly. There needs to be an election for a new parliament through which can be formed a government that has a mandate to negotiate with the EU.Comment
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Originally posted by stek View PostI'm reading that there is a possibly of a referendum of whether we should invoke Art. 50. There are alternatives too, i.e. Art. 48 for example.
The process (of notifying the EU) is controlled by Gov't, not parliament. What you're suggesting is that a scenario could arise whereby a new Tory PM chooses not to formally notify the European Council of our intention to leave.
I can't believe I'm even bothering to write this. You can choose not to take me at my word, but I would've said the same, had we lost.
Anyone seriously considering the circumstances in which we ignore the vote, however clever that mechanism might appear to be, doesn't realise what they're playing with. Funny stuff.
Bring on Stage 3!Comment
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Originally posted by Old Greg View PostThere is no parliamentary approval of the process required now. Of course Parliament could pass an act requiring such approval.
But it is all rather silly. There needs to be an election for a new parliament through which can be formed a government that has a mandate to negotiate with the EU.
A Private Members Bill?Comment
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