Well I can only share my experience and my families experience of a different kind of Brexit with the UK, which was disastrous to this day.
1973 New Zealand left the Commonwealth Free Trade as Britain joined the EU common market, literally overnight NZ was is trouble. 50% of trade was done with the UK, NZ had to adjust quickly but that was the problem, no trade deals or little of them. Food prices surged, farmers went broke and this was just the start. I remember my Uncle telling me farmers were walking off their properties (bankrupt), manufacturing industry died over the next 5 years, including he whole car industry by 1985, till this day there is not a single car plant in NZ, I remember Ford, Nissan, Toyota to name a few.
What happened? Tariffs increased dramatically for medicine, manufacturing, food export and import. The Oil Crisis in the late 70's didn't really affect NZ too much like others.
Without many trade deals, some were negotiated quickly over a 5-10 years period more out of desperation than anything and not very favourable but at least farmers could start working again. By 1984 a new government came in and literally overnight liberalised all government owned enterprises with no other choice and no longer pegged the NZD, what did this mean?
- Medicine was no longer free! Till this day you have to pay to see the Doctor $75-100, pay for 20% of operations fees or a residual payment depending on circumstances, medicine was no longer free or subsidised.
- You were now paying more for a bottle of wine or cheese in NZ than overseas, still to this day nothing has changed. NZ Lamb in cheaper in the UK than NZ still today, why? Farmers can export at higher volume and higher costs and yes, of course you guessed, why sell cheaper in NZ when I can export..... consumers are stuffed!
- all car plants and manufacturing went dead, too difficult to compete overseas. All cars are imported today, mostly from Japan.
- thousands and thousands or people lost their jobs and a lot had to change career if they could get a job.
-interest rates went through the roof much earlier than the UK and rates are much higher today than anywhere in the Western World, great for overseas investors bad for local mortgages.
- only later in the 1990's, trade deals were completed with the likes of China and the US, Britain is now only about 3% of trade and EU is about 20% later climbing with an expected free deal with the EU for NZ and Australia on the horizon.
So after 30 odd years, NZ economy is doing ok, but still food prices are expensive, NZ wine is expensive for example, transport is high cost and medicine is NOT free.
CONCLUSION
I have no idea what is going to happen to the UK, I can only share experience from NZ when they left the commonwealth market in 1973 (same as Australia felt but they had more natural resources even so they suffered as well). 70's is a long time ago and global trading was much different then. Will we see UK with the same outcome? I believe so and the UK IMO are absolute mugs to leave the biggest free market in the world, suicidal in my opinion.
NZ and Australia free trade together is the only thing keeping NZ afloat but that will never die.
1973 New Zealand left the Commonwealth Free Trade as Britain joined the EU common market, literally overnight NZ was is trouble. 50% of trade was done with the UK, NZ had to adjust quickly but that was the problem, no trade deals or little of them. Food prices surged, farmers went broke and this was just the start. I remember my Uncle telling me farmers were walking off their properties (bankrupt), manufacturing industry died over the next 5 years, including he whole car industry by 1985, till this day there is not a single car plant in NZ, I remember Ford, Nissan, Toyota to name a few.
What happened? Tariffs increased dramatically for medicine, manufacturing, food export and import. The Oil Crisis in the late 70's didn't really affect NZ too much like others.
Without many trade deals, some were negotiated quickly over a 5-10 years period more out of desperation than anything and not very favourable but at least farmers could start working again. By 1984 a new government came in and literally overnight liberalised all government owned enterprises with no other choice and no longer pegged the NZD, what did this mean?
- Medicine was no longer free! Till this day you have to pay to see the Doctor $75-100, pay for 20% of operations fees or a residual payment depending on circumstances, medicine was no longer free or subsidised.
- You were now paying more for a bottle of wine or cheese in NZ than overseas, still to this day nothing has changed. NZ Lamb in cheaper in the UK than NZ still today, why? Farmers can export at higher volume and higher costs and yes, of course you guessed, why sell cheaper in NZ when I can export..... consumers are stuffed!
- all car plants and manufacturing went dead, too difficult to compete overseas. All cars are imported today, mostly from Japan.
- thousands and thousands or people lost their jobs and a lot had to change career if they could get a job.
-interest rates went through the roof much earlier than the UK and rates are much higher today than anywhere in the Western World, great for overseas investors bad for local mortgages.
- only later in the 1990's, trade deals were completed with the likes of China and the US, Britain is now only about 3% of trade and EU is about 20% later climbing with an expected free deal with the EU for NZ and Australia on the horizon.
So after 30 odd years, NZ economy is doing ok, but still food prices are expensive, NZ wine is expensive for example, transport is high cost and medicine is NOT free.
CONCLUSION
I have no idea what is going to happen to the UK, I can only share experience from NZ when they left the commonwealth market in 1973 (same as Australia felt but they had more natural resources even so they suffered as well). 70's is a long time ago and global trading was much different then. Will we see UK with the same outcome? I believe so and the UK IMO are absolute mugs to leave the biggest free market in the world, suicidal in my opinion.
NZ and Australia free trade together is the only thing keeping NZ afloat but that will never die.
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