Murky Nissan deal

[BlasterBates]

I'm not totally against a transitional deal, in principle, but I think it's very likely to end as described, i.e. some fugly purgatory that no one will support. In that case, none of the pressures within the Tory party, or outside, have gone away, so what comes afterwards would be much more hardline. I'd still assume that the Council will be pragmatic (unlike the Commission), and there was an article in the WSJ yesterday alluding to that, but we'll see. TBH, I'm rather bored of all the speculation now and would be happy to revisit this in a couple of years

Indeed "purgatory" is a very apt description.

Brexit will result in purgatory

[sasguru]

Transitional arrangement?

Waste of time. Hard Brexit now. That way we'll answer the question once and for all - can it work?
And if it doesn't who cares if some Northerners have to queue for food banks?
It was their own choice after all.

[FarmerPalmer]

We import more cars from the EU than we export to the EU.

Tariffs work both ways. ... so the government takes more in import tariffs than the car makers pay in export tariffs.

It is still not legal to subsidise companies under WTO deals.

However you could use the money to reduce business rates, remove employer NI etc for car manufacturers to encourage investment ... now that may be legal.

caveat: I am just an engineer and not an economist or lawyer, so I am probably wrong.

[jamesbrown]

Indeed "purgatory" is a very apt description.

Right, so why the false dichotomy from continuity Remain between "hard" and "soft"? There's no "soft" option according to everyone that matters. It's a contradiction in terms. We either go to Brexit via purgatory or we go there directly. To pursue the now tiring analogy, the only argument concerns whether Brexit is ultimately heaven or hell. I would've thought that continuity Remain would prefer that the dire warnings emerge more quickly, so that we can all reconsider? This is the absurd contradiction at the heart of continuity Remain. They're deeply worried about being both right and wrong and they don't yet see that Brexit is going to happen, regardless of whether it goes via purgatory. It seems to me that everyone should be arguing for what is currently referred to as "hard Brexit" (i.e. Brexit) so that we can then argue pragmatically about trade arrangements outside the CU and SM, avoiding all this nonsense about the shade of wallpaper in purgatory.

[jamesbrown]

Transitional arrangement?

See, even sas agrees

[shaunbhoy]

See, even sas agrees

And, if we ever wanted proof that even those existing in the lower intellectual quartile have seen the light, there it is!!

[BlasterBates]

Right, so why the false dichotomy from continuity Remain between "hard" and "soft"? There's no "soft" option according to everyone that matters. It's a contradiction in terms. We either go to Brexit via purgatory or we go there directly. To pursue the now tiring analogy, the only argument concerns whether Brexit is ultimately heaven or hell. I would've thought that continuity Remain would prefer that the dire warnings emerge more quickly, so that we can all reconsider? This is the absurd contradiction at the heart of continuity Remain. They're deeply worried about being both right and wrong and they don't yet see that Brexit is going to happen, regardless of whether it goes via purgatory. It seems to me that everyone should be arguing for what is currently referred to as "hard Brexit" (i.e. Brexit) so that we can then argue pragmatically about trade arrangements outside the CU and SM, avoiding all this nonsense about the shade of wallpaper in purgatory.

The trouble is you might go bankrupt trying to get to the promised land.

Well maybe not bankrupt but there will be an enormous amount of pain associated with transforming an economy for Hard Brexit, and the UK starts the process with a huge debt.

I think Hard Brexit will fail because the UK isn't sufficiently wealthy and everyone is ill informed and ill prepared for the consequences.

Peter Hitchens and Ambrose Pritchard both in favour of Hard Brexit have both predicted that the UK will end up stuck half out of the EU, because no-one has prepared and have realistic expectations about how to go about it.

Think of it as like tackling Everest with some light clothing, a thermos flask of coffee and an expectation that it will be a bit like climbing Ben Nevis.

[sasguru]

The trouble is you might go bankrupt trying to get to the promised land.

Well maybe not bankrupt but there will be an enormous amount of pain associated with transforming an economy for Hard Brexit, and the UK starts the process with a huge debt.

I think Hard Brexit will fail because the UK isn't sufficiently wealthy and everyone is ill informed and ill prepared for the consequences.

I agree with all that.
As in Greece there will be many losers and a few winners.
I'm set up for hard Brexit now and can see the opportunities for personal gain.

[shaunbhoy]

I'm set up for hard Brexit now and can see the opportunities for personal gain.

Pinning your hopes on the Village Idiot market remaining unscathed then?