Civil war breaks out in the Tory Party Civil war breaks out in the Tory Party - Page 3
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  1. #21

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    Quote Originally Posted by BlasterBates View Post
    No they don't but it is not a deal breaker. There are two principles that are important to the EU

    1) UK paying into the budget
    2) Freedom of movement or very close

    You get those two you have a deal, you don't I agree no easy deal, i.e. it will take several years and you end up with a goods only trade.

    The UK will get hobsons choice. Theresa's white paper is "fairy land",which is why the Ambassador resigned and Juncker said she was deluded. At the end of two years either the UK agrees to pay the EU and keep FOM or the borders close, and it's economic meltdown. The EU has popular support in Germany for that approach.

    Up until 2019 the economy will be going down hill and Brexit enthusiasm will evaporate. There will be at least one or two more elections.


    I agree on your principles, just not on the likely outcome. Of course, between now and 2019 pretty much anything could happen. We're overdue a global economic meltdown.

  2. #22

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    Quote Originally Posted by jamesbrown View Post
    You'd still lose - betcha
    Indeed.......

    provided that the economy is doing well

    If the economy goes down the toilet we're back to 1972.

    What decides Brexit is not "current" opinion it's the performance of the UK's economy.
    I'm alright Jack

  3. #23

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    Quote Originally Posted by jamesbrown View Post
    I agree on your principles, just not on the likely outcome. Of course, between now and 2019 pretty much anything could happen. We're overdue a global economic meltdown.
    The thing is Labour has big spending plans so unlike the Tories that don't mind tripping over beggars in the streets they will be pressurised by the Unions to do a deal.
    I'm alright Jack

  4. #24

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    Quote Originally Posted by jamesbrown View Post
    You'd still lose - betcha
    Nope - all the 16-24 year olds found out yesterday they can indeed change things.
    The reason they all registered to vote and turned out was the shock they got at the Brexit result, which most had assumed was a Remain done deal.
    Many were parting at Glasto :-)
    Things have changed since last year

    True Brexit is in the Labour manifesto, but given a 2nd ref, how do you think the youth vote would go?
    Last edited by sasguru; 10th June 2017 at 12:09.
    Hard Brexit now!
    #prayfornodeal

  5. #25

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    Quote Originally Posted by BlasterBates View Post
    Indeed.......

    provided that the economy is doing well

    If the economy goes down the toilet we're back to 1972.
    Nah, you see, that's the point. For a very large fraction of the electorate, the economy was absolutely not their first priority when they voted. I think you recall the warnings about economic Armageddon. The "global economy" is an abstraction, and many voted against it (you may scoff, but it's just an analysis, not a commentary) At the margins, you have a large number of democrats that don't like the idea of being asked twice (especially w/r to questions on the EU ). I predict a broad invariance to the state of the economy. Arguments w/r to the uncertainty of delayed exit will be equally credible for a majority of the electorate. However, I concede that my predictions have been piss poor recently.

  6. #26

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    Quote Originally Posted by sasguru View Post
    Nope - all the 16-24 year olds found out yesterday they can indeed change things.
    The reason they all registered to vote and turned out was the shock they got at the Brexit result, which most had assumed was a Remain done deal.
    Many were parting at Glasto :-)
    Things have changed since last year
    It really wasn't. It was precisely what BB was saying beforehand; tuition fees and a general sense the Korbyn was for the kids (his campaign was below the radar for many of us). Did you see the turnout at universities? The kids aren't that motivated by the EU. They are motivated by their bank balance and "changing the world".

  7. #27

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    I would just add, that the Iraq war also had overwhelming support in parliament, in the Newspapers and amongst the electorate.

    I'm alright Jack

  8. #28

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    Quote Originally Posted by jamesbrown View Post
    The kids aren't that motivated by the EU.
    I think that's one of your many misconceptions
    Hard Brexit now!
    #prayfornodeal

  9. #29

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    I'm alright Jack

  10. #30

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    for balance

    I'm alright Jack

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