stock market crash

[scooterscot]

If you believe that drawing a line predicts the future, does this means everything is preordained in the chart? For example, if I draw a similar downward line at the far left of that chart, it would "predict" a market bottom than never happened.

Just think what it would mean if drawing a line from the past told you the future, it would mean the future cannot change.

It's just plain obviously idiotic to think the economies of the world and their markets work this way....

A great question. A question I've asked myself from time to time. A question that's came up long before I became interested in charting what people were thinking. In the engineering world, deterministic predictions would often translate into actual timely events (based on Weibull analysis mostly amongst other Stochastic processes) - spooky - but soon I'd realise (as to your question) we, as humans, exchange all to easily reason for agnostic belief when we are unable to understand something. Much of my engineering predictions that lead to an event were the result of some human error years prior, rather than some spooky apparent convergence of lines that would seem to suggest effect proceeded cause. Then assumptions slip in to your reasoning... Assumptions are the mother of all @£$up's. I recall a CEO throwing work out the window when the suggestion of an assumption was used in the analysis, he was German.

Let's not make the assumption the line is a random placement. The line is not predicting the future, I am based on previous human behaviour. Knowing where to put the line is the reason why... never mind. Just as many believe price action is a random walk of price discovery, I know price action is really telling me what people are thinking. That's powerful... but takes some wrapping your head around. Best advice? Believe in yourself.

[MrMarkyMark]

A great question. A question I've asked myself from time to time. A question that's came up long before I became interested in charting what people were thinking. In the engineering world, deterministic predictions would often translate into actual timely events (based on Weibull analysis mostly amongst other Stochastic processes) - spooky - but soon I'd realise (as to your question) we, as humans, exchange all to easily reason for agnostic belief when we are unable to understand something. Much of my engineering predictions that lead to an event were the result of some human error years prior, rather than some spooky apparent convergence of lines that would seem to suggest effect proceeded cause. Then assumptions slip in to your reasoning... Assumptions are the mother of all @£$up's. I recall a CEO throwing work out the window when the suggestion of an assumption was used in the analysis, he was German.

Let's not make the assumption the line is a random placement. The line is not predicting the future, I am based on previous human behaviour. Knowing where to put the line is the reason why... never mind. Just as many believe price action is a random walk of price discovery, I know price action is really telling me what people are thinking. That's powerful... but takes some rapping your head around. Best advice? Believe in yourself.

So, you are just a poor quality droid, then

[jamesbrown]

rapping your head around

You're certainly a Notorious T.W.A.T.

[scooterscot]

He has obviously never worked for a trading firm or investment bank, and saw the teams of analysts, market data, decision support, embedded IT, front office, back office and traders all trying to figure how to make money. Why don't they draw some straight lines, place the trades and then go home and get rich.

Most of them haven't got a clue. Investment houses spend millions every year on prediction tools, prediction info. It's a huge industry in of itself. Indeed they've huge accounts to manage - it is not so straight forward.. Even Bridgewater, who I have huge respect fur, of recent managed to lose tens of millions.

Ray Dalio caught wrongfooted with big losses at Bridgewater fund



Hedge Funds Plan to Pour MoreMoney Into Alternative Data


Analytics in banking: Time to realize the value | McKinsey

[BlueSharp]

Most of them haven't got a clue. Investment houses spend millions every year on prediction tools, prediction info. It's a huge industry in of itself. Indeed they've huge accounts to manage - it is not so straight forward.. Even Bridgewater, who I have huge respect fur, of recent managed to lose tens of millions.

Ray Dalio caught wrongfooted with big losses at Bridgewater fund



Hedge Funds Plan to Pour MoreMoney Into Alternative Data


Analytics in banking: Time to realize the value | McKinsey

Remember during the gold rush to America only the spade manufactures made a lot of money.

[Paralytic]

A great question. A question I've asked myself from time to time. A question that's came up long before I became interested in charting what people were thinking. In the engineering world, deterministic predictions would often translate into actual timely events (based on Weibull analysis mostly amongst other Stochastic processes) - spooky - but soon I'd realise (as to your question) we, as humans, exchange all to easily reason for agnostic belief when we are unable to understand something. Much of my engineering predictions that lead to an event were the result of some human error years prior, rather than some spooky apparent convergence of lines that would seem to suggest effect proceeded cause. Then assumptions slip in to your reasoning... Assumptions are the mother of all @£$up's. I recall a CEO throwing work out the window when the suggestion of an assumption was used in the analysis, he was German.

Let's not make the assumption the line is a random placement. The line is not predicting the future, I am based on previous human behaviour. Knowing where to put the line is the reason why... never mind. Just as many believe price action is a random walk of price discovery, I know price action is really telling me what people are thinking. That's powerful... but takes some wrapping your head around. Best advice? Believe in yourself.

Lots of words, but you're basically admitting that its not the chart that's telling anyone anything - its your reading of the chart, your interpretation, weighted by your own inherent expectations, wants and prejudices (we all have them) on where you want the market to go. That is telling you where to put the line.

You're then trying to convince others that the chart is telling a story based on history occurrences, whereas its just telling your story based what you think will happen.

I also think a little part of you hopes that repeatedly posting bearish statements here might move the market a little bit, but I'm sure we all realise how futile that is.

[scooterscot]

Lots of words, but you're basically admitting that its not the chart that's telling anyone anything - its your reading of the chart, your interpretation, weighted by your own inherent expectations, wants and prejudices (we all have them) on where you want the market to go. That is telling you where to put the line.

You're then trying to convince others that the chart is telling a story based on history occurrences, whereas its just telling your story based what you think will happen.

I also think a little part of you hopes that repeatedly posting bearish statements here might move the market a little bit, but I'm sure we all realise how futile that is.

Absolutely not trying to convince anyone, they are just opinions. There's no gain in for me, other than to share my thoughts - take it or leave it.

My emotions never once play a part in reading the chart, bearish or bullish. It has taken me time to practice for sure. When reading a chart you must be scientific, 99% is support & resistance. If you're finding yourself drawing lines for the outcome you want you may as well take your money to Vegas.

[scooterscot]

I also think a little part of you hopes that repeatedly posting bearish statements here might move the market a little bit, but I'm sure we all realise how futile that is.

Emotion - a money killer, make no mistake. 'New paradigm', 'Buy the dip' - heard it a million times until the bulls capitulate.

There's a depression coming, one would be wise to protect their purchasing power before deflation in the years ahead really takes hold.

Coronavirus: 'Drop in global trade to be worse than 2008 crisis'

[jamesbrown]

When reading a chart you must be scientific

All fairy stories have a rubric, scootie, but fairy stories are not science.

[scooterscot]

All fairy stories have a rubric, scootie, but fairy stories are not science.

For example?