COVID paranoia

[AtW]

Sorry, not quite sure what you're saying there

Coronavirus UK map: How many confirmed cases are there in your area? - BBC News

[AtW]

So, it’s 64k death really, with less than 10% population having had it, model was pretty correct - don’t care if it was spaghetti code

[AtW]

Covid deaths per million of two countries. One locked down, one didn't.

UK 614
Sweden 483

“ Sweden has made less progress than expected in achieving immunity to the coronavirus, according to its state epidemiologist.

After leaving schools, shops and restaurants open throughout the pandemic, contagion rates in Sweden are much higher than anywhere else in the Nordic region. Its Covid-19 mortality rate is among the worst in the world. Scientists have been eager to learn whether the flipside of widespread contagion is a higher level of immunity.

But according to Anders Tegnell, Sweden’s state epidemiologist, “the trends in immunity have been surprisingly slow.” He also says “it’s difficult to explain why this is so.”“

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...premium-europe

[GreenT]

you are ignoring the very purpose of the lockdown: to keep people alive

also: countries what went very "paranoid" with "fear of getting covid" and implemented lockdown early (like New Zealand) have eliminated it now and are opening up, avoiding 1., 2. and 3.

so yes, a bit more paranoia would have served us well.

It's going to be more than balanced by

1. Mass unemployment or worries about becoming unemployed
2. Sleep will be fecked due to #1
3. Fear of getting Covid will result in less people getting treatment for treatable deseases

Pretty DOOMy, eh?

[AtW]

so yes, a lot less MPs in pockets of wealthy donors would have served us well.

FTFY

[Excursion UK]

So, it’s 64k death really, with less than 10% population having had it, model was pretty correct - don’t care if it was spaghetti code

No it's not. Again, we don't even know how many of the 40k who died testing positive for cv actually died from it. And how do we know 10% of the population have had it given that it is claimed to be largely asymptomatic among certain groups, especially the young?

[AtW]

And how do we know 10% of the population have had it given that it is claimed to be largely asymptomatic among certain groups, especially the young?

Serological testing of representative and statistically significant population, that’s how

“ That same testing sample found that approximately 5 percent of the wider UK population have antibodies, though Hancock stressed that more testing is required to paint a more accurate picture.”

UK tests reveal 17% of Londoners have COVID-19 antibodies - CGTN

You are dumber than malvolio

[caffeine man]

I've thought all along that widespread administering of a controlled infection with a small dose, i.e. a crude vaccine of a kind, would have been the least bad long term option, by rapidly giving society herd immunity.

Yes, it would make some individuals as sick as a parrot for a while, and even cause a few fatalities. But they are happening anyway aren't they? That's nature for you and nobody's direct fault, and most fatalities are probably caused by copping a large initial dose of the virus with no prior exposure to allow a prompt effective immune response.

Something else to consider is that sooner or later we'll probably nearly all be infected by coronavirus one way or another, because possibly more waves are on the way:

2020-06-16 Beijing residents are rounded up and put in quarantine as the city goes back into lockdown, schools are shut and travel bans are reintroduced to stop 'extremely severe' new coronavirus outbreak

So complete avoidance is not necessarily the best option, unless you are relying on a safe vaccine or prompt cure to be available in the next year or so, which doesn't seem to me very likely.

It is not known if immunity to Covid lasts very long, making a Vaccine usefulness unknown, even if one was available.

[AtW]

Based on 5% infected and supposed herd immunity at 70% we’d be looking at 60k*14=840k excess death, so looks loke Ferguson’s model was conservative (he probably failed to take into account how fooking stupid Tory chunts in charge are)

[AtW]

It is not known if immunity to Covid lasts very long, making a Vaccine usefulness unknown, even if one was available.

Even if it lasts 6 months then it’s great - buys time to eliminate virus and/or find effective treatment

Saves the economy too, but if it backfires anti-vaxers will have field day