Stamp Duty Holiday

[Whorty]

We're about a week away from the budget and with Rishi being adamant that the Tories will not extend the stamp duty holiday, what do the collective hive minds on here think because, let's face it, they're bound to make some kind of u-turn aren't they?

These are options as I see it although there could be more (I'd do a poll but no don't seem to have the ability):

1) No change. Stamp duty holiday ends at cliff edge on 31st March

2) Stamp duty holiday extended but only for property purchases that have been agreed prior to 31st March (to be confirmed by solicitor?)

3) Stamp duty holiday extended for x weeks/months exactly as now so with a future cliff edge

4) Stamp duty and council tax replaced with a new 'housing tax'. This is an interesting one and has been mooted for some time but given the high % increase in council tax, and the stamp duty holiday, may be a time to slip this in. Proposal is 0.48% of property value.

5) Andy W's Mom has been fully extended already

Any gambling ladies and gents out there?

I can see option 2 being an easy option for the Tories. But, 3 going into 4 at the start of the next tax year in 2022 would be my preferred as it would make house sales a less difficult process.

[Lance]

We're about a week away from the budget and with Rishi being adamant that the Tories will not extend the stamp duty holiday, what do the collective hive minds on here think because, let's face it, they're bound to make some kind of u-turn aren't they?

These are options as I see it although there could be more (I'd do a poll but no don't seem to have the ability):

1) No change. Stamp duty holiday ends at cliff edge on 31st March

2) Stamp duty holiday extended but only for property purchases that have been agreed prior to 31st March (to be confirmed by solicitor?)

3) Stamp duty holiday extended for x weeks/months exactly as now so with a future cliff edge

4) Stamp duty and council tax replaced with a new 'housing tax'. This is an interesting one and has been mooted for some time but given the high % increase in council tax, and the stamp duty holiday, may be a time to slip this in. Proposal is 0.48% of property value.

5) Andy W's Mom has been fully extended already

Any gambling ladies and gents out there?

I can see option 2 being an easy option for the Tories. But, 3 going into 4 at the start of the next tax year in 2022 would be my preferred as it would make house sales a less difficult process.

3)


It should be 4) but that requires a) competence, b) cross party support (they could easily get it and park the Tory Tank on the Labour Lawn for a decade), c) planning. So it'll be 3).

[jamesbrown]

Short extension as a minimum, IMHO. Sunday Times speculated on a much longer one, alongside other covid measures. You can never really underestimate the Tories ability for housing boosterism; they are massive cretins in that regard. What we need is a prolonged stagnation in prices, but they will never let that happen. Still, I hope you get your extension - it seems pretty harsh, in the first instance, to have based this on completion date, but I suppose it was the simplest verifiable option.

[ladymuck]

IIRC the housing tax wouldn't be applied to renters (although it will indirectly in the form of increase rents, I suspect) so I'm all for that in principle but I'll reserve judgement until I see what crock of tulip they come up with if that's the way forward.

I think 2 would be ok but I wouldn't give a deadline of 31 March. It should be sales agreed by 31 December 2020 as three months to complete isn't an unreasonable time frame in normal circumstances. If I'm feeling super generous, maybe 31 January, but 8 weeks to complete is quite fast.

Option 3 is what is most likely to happen if they do u-turn.

EDIT: ooh the swear filter isn't on! I expected to see tulip...

[Eirikur]

Most real estate agents, mortgage advisors and new built sales people I have spoken to over the last few weeks (and I have spoken to a lot) think it won't be extended although a few said option 2

[BlueSharp]

It wont be extended IMO. It was bought in to kick start the house buying process if some sales fall through the houses will get resold and the process starts again creating more work for the industry. The only way it will get extended is if there is another lockdown on the horizon, extending it would not be a vote of confidance in the UKs impediate future.

[Whorty]

It wont be extended IMO. It was bought in to kick start the house buying process if some sales fall through the houses will get resold and the process starts again creating more work for the industry. The only way it will get extended is if there is another lockdown on the horizon, extending it would not be a vote of confidance in the UKs impediate future.

There is an estimate that there are currently 400,000 sales in progress and that 160,000 of these will not hit the current deadline. If we still with the 31st March deadline then 100,000+ house sales could collapse in one day. House prices will drop, and the government won't get that much extra tax in.

Of course, anything could happen ..... isn't it fun waiting to see if you're going to have to pay an extra £15k for the sake of potentially 1 extra week?

[Whorty]

Most real estate agents, mortgage advisors and new built sales people I have spoken to over the last few weeks (and I have spoken to a lot) think it won't be extended although a few said option 2

My anecdotal evidence is the polar opposite.

My buyer is a financial/mortgage adviser, he says in his work circle they're expecting an extension. My selling agent, and the agent I'm buying through are also looking to see the deadline extended. Spoke to my solicitor today and she's optimistic it will be extended. Spoke to a removal firm today and they are also expecting an extension, so much so they've just invested in extra storage containers to cover the extra work they're expecting in April.

I wonder when the Tories will release their plan to the press to get he public's view?

[eek]

Short extension as a minimum, IMHO. Sunday Times speculated on a much longer one, alongside other covid measures. You can never really underestimate the Tories ability for housing boosterism; they are massive cretins in that regard. What we need is a prolonged stagnation in prices, but they will never let that happen. Still, I hope you get your extension - it seems pretty harsh, in the first instance, to have based this on completion date, but I suppose it was the simplest verifiable option.

Depends where you live in the country.

Houses prices around here reflect 2004 sale prices simply because we've built 8,000 new homes over that time so supply has matched demand.

[mattster]

It should be 4) but that requires a) competence, b) cross party support (they could easily get it and park the Tory Tank on the Labour Lawn for a decade), c) planning. So it'll be 3).

Agree entirely, but I think that is too radical to implement so quickly. If you are talking about a fixed percentage-of-value tax, then that would require some fundamental changes to the way local councils are funded. Currently some of the councils with the highest property prices have the lowest council tax, Kengsington and Chelsea being the prime example (half mine in West Sussex, for example, for the same band). That's probably not so surprising since I guess it costs more to provide services to less affluent people. Also, just too many asset rich, cash poor (pensioners in £1m home) type people around, so if they ever did decide to do something like (which I doubt), then it'll have to be flagged up well in advance - we'd have been seeing Torygraph articles testing the waters for years by now.